All Mac Considered

Prognostications: 2004

The end of the year is rapidly approaching and MacWorld Expo in San Francisco is looming nigh... too soon for most of us to have recovered from the deadly combination of New Year's Eve partying and endless rounds of football games on New Year's Day. Strangely, there have only been a few whispers from the usual crew of rumor mongers and almost nothing from self-appointed Mac web pundits attempting to guess what Apple will be showing off in San Francisco on January 5-9, 2004. Recent announcements such as the 20" iMac, after Panther, and following the announcement of the G5 PowerMacs in rapid succession has left most Mac webbies a bit stunned for the past six months or so. Perhaps it's hard to guess what Apple might be up to in San Francisco after that barrage of goodies.

Nonetheless, I am going to risk making an utter fool of myself and attempt to guess what Apple might be doing for us in 2004. Some things are no-brainers, some are obvious after a little reflection, and some are based on the rumor mongers and their claims of special info... that is, after I take their statements cum grano salis... a whole bag of salis for that matter.

Things To Come... 2004

PowerMac G5

Some things are pretty obvious, such as a speed bump to Apple's G5 series to be announced at MWSF 2004. The clock speed at the top and of the two lower models has been the subject of some educated guessing but the speeds range from as high as 2.6 GHz to as low as 2.4 GHz, with an average guess at about 2.5 GHz. The mid level will go to something like 2.2 GHz dual processor version according to one source (who will remain unnamed so as to protect the guilty...) and the bottom model will go to a single processor at 2 GHz. There are also comments about improved firmware and more advanced system bus speeds on a revised motherboard up to 1.5 GHz at the system bus. That would allow a simple 2X clock multiplication as high as 3 GHz. That also implies that Apple expects a rapid ramping up of PowerMac G5 performance over the next few months. Since we have it directly from the mouth of Steven Jobs himself that Apple expects to reach 3 GHz by the summer of 2004, it would seem rather obvious that we can really expect to see 3 GHz G5 PowerMacs by summer of 2004.

Now that bit from His Jobness himself about 3 GHz by summer of 2004 has some interesting implications. First of all, it means as fast as a current G5 is, it will get a serious 50% clock speed boost within a few months. Compare that to a Pentium 4 being boosted recently from 3.06 GHz to 3.2 Ghz, meaning that over the past year or so Intel has only been able to squeeze less than a a paltry 5% clock speed increase out of their aging ISA-32 (X86) based processors. Second, it implies that Apple will move from the PPC 970 to the more advanced PPC 980 sometime in the 3rd quarter of 2004, or possibly before.This because the PPC 970 is only intended to reach 2.8 GHz and the PPC 980 is to be introduced at an initial 3 GHz, eventual to reach at least 5 GHz. To add insult to injury for the Pentium 4, the G5 series can easily operate in an MP (multi-processing) environment but the Pentium 4 is still unable to support MP.

G5 iMac

Now let's look at our favorite low end Mac, the iMac. Apple recently announced a new model with an astounding 20" flat screen. It will be a while before Apple's Wintel imitators can pull off anything like a 20" screen on an all-in-one Wintel box. They still haven't successfully copied the 15" version, and this isn't for lack of trying. However, if you look closely at the new 20" model you will realize that the actual computer itself exclusive of that incredible screen is identical to the 17" model. This is not a full refresh of the line by any means but a hint of things to come.

Some sources commented about a new chassis for the iMac, but so far all they could come up with is a move away from the current stainless steel inner chassis to a cast magnesium and plastic inner chassis. The iBook and PowerBook currently use the same magnesium and plastic chassis structure and so far the results seem to be lighter weight, greater body stiffness and lower cost in manufacture. Cheaper yet better is always a winning combination. For Apple to choose to redesign the iMac in the same manner is an obvious improvement.

However, there are some hidden implications inside of this chassis redesign... assuming that the reports about it are true. For one thing, a chassis redesign is usually accompanied by major redesigns of the motherboard and sometimes this includes a processor change. Eventually Apple will move the iMac from the G4 to the G5 and this change may come unexpectedly soon.

Consider the following facts: Apple is less than enchanted with Motorola's continuing failure to develop the G4 processor in a timely fashion. Whether this is because of disinterest on the part of Motorola or ineptitude in fabbing, or both, the result is a shortage of needed G4 processors used in iMacs, PowerBooks and iBooks. Not only that, the performance level of these Motorola processors is less than stellar. Plus, Motorola charges Apple more for a G4 class processor than IBM does for a G5 class processor. If Apple has to pay higher prices for what is now Apple's low end processor than it does for it's high end processors, does it make sense to continue to use overly expensive parts for low end and mobile products when better parts are available and used in the higher end Apple products? There does not seem to be a shortage of the G5 processors coming from IBM while Motorola seems unable to produce a reasonable quantity of G4s.

What to do?

Apple already has the answer to this problem available to them, nicely provided by IBM. Since G5 processors are actually cheaper than G4 processors, perhaps Apple might switch some models to a relatively low clock speed G5. After all, an iMac does not really need to run at 2 GHz to have acceptable performance. Although most PPC 970 processors (G5) currently used by Apple are in the range of 1.8 GHz to 2 GHz, and will probably soon be boosted to the 2 GHz to 2.4+ GHz range, there must be a sizable quantity of lesser performing G5 processors that although are not up to PowerMac requirements would be more than adequate in iMacs. Plus, they would be much cheaper than the Motorola supplied G4s. A no-brainer... switch the iMac from costly and inadequate G4 processors from Motorola that are in short supply anyway and at the same time as Apple cuts costs, the performance of the iMac gets a major boost and also gets a marketing windfall... the first consumer level 64 bit desktop machine running Unix. That alone will give Intel nightmares and AMD fits of rage.

How difficult would this be? Well, a major motherboard redesign would be necessary to accommodate the enormous data thirst of the G5. A meager 166 MHz bus speed ain't going to cut it but I think Apple might be able to do better with less effort than any of us might guess. For one thing, the motherboard bus speed is determined not by the circuit board we think of when we seee a motherboard but by the special chipset that is used to operate the circuitry. Apple will be moving from the current chipset on the G5 PowerMac to a more advanced one on the upcoming models. This means that Apple will probably move the older G5 chipset down to a lower model as is their usual habit. That immediate lower model would likely be the iMac before it finds its way into PowerBooks and iBooks. Combining the known facts of the lower cost of the G5 relative to the G4, the probability of increasing the saleable yields of G5s (and therefore IBM profits) by selling lower clock speed chips that were inadequate for a PowerMac G5 but fine in an iMac with the reports of a new iMac chassis design and knowing what a major coup it would be for Apple to produce a consumer level G5 and at the same time cut costs... it is rather obvious that Apple would want to produce a G5 iMac as soon as possible.

Okay... so when will that G5 iMac appear?

Ummm... I can only guess and wish. I would hope that a G5 refreshed iMac would make its surprise appearance on January 5, 2004. The iMac is really ready for a major design refresh despite the recent announcement of a 20" cinema aspect flat screen model. That was only a new screen added to the existing lineup using existing hardware for the most part. A G5 iMac appearing sometime in the first quarter of 2004 would have an immense impact on iMac sales and a boost to Apple's bottom line. I would definitely count myself as someone who would buy one. Apple will definitely come up with a G5 iMac, but whether or not it will appear as soon as MWSF 2004 is still a question. It would certainly be a very pleasant surprise if Steve Jobs decides to give it to us in one of his patented "one more thing..." announcements.

G5 PowerBook

Apple could hypothetically produce one now. The usual problems with heat and power being cited do not necessarily apply at lower clock speeds. At 65 watts, the current 2 GHzPPC 970 would not seem to be a candidate for a PowerBook. The batteries would last about ten minutes and it would produce enough heat to melt a small glacier. If you are willing to accept a slightly lower clock speed, say about 1.2 GHz, a G5 uses only 19 watts and produces significantly less heat. This is compared to a MPC 7455 in early G4 PowerBooks that uses 22 watts at one GHz. I certainly hope that the current MPC 7457 used in the PowerBook uses less power than that!

The current process size on the PPC 970 is 13 nm but 9 nm processors are on the way which will produce significantly less heat and use much less power. This means that Apple may not produce a G5 PowerBook until the second half of 2004. There was one note that floated by some weeks ago about Apple requesting a mobile version of the G5 for future PowerBooks. It will be interesting to see what really goes into a future G5 PowerBook, but we will have to wait a while for that one.

New Flat Screen Displays

Ever notice that the styling of the current Cinema Displays do not really match the styling of the G5 PowerMacs? It should be obvious that Apple is getting something ready that at least have the same Industrial Macho styling of the PowerMac G5. Add to that, the recent addition of a 20" flat screen model to the iMac tells us that LCD prices have dropped enough to justify newer and hopefully better screens. Expect the 17" Studio (3X2) flat screen to disappear, replaced by a 17" Cinema Aspect (16X9) flat screen for PowerMac buyers on tight budgets. The 20" and 23" models will probably be retained by restyled and perhaps with a few performance improvements as well.

There is a rumored 30" monster that Apple is suposed to have ready. At last word Apple had not yet decided to produce this beast. It wouldn't be cheap, but for a serious move into Avid's territory a PowerMac system with lots of 3rd party enhancements running Shake and Final Cut Pro mated with this monster sized 30" screen would make the PowerMac a relatively low cost alternative to Avid's horrifically overpriced high end systems. I would expect it to sell at a premium price but be very popular with major content production companies, movie post production, 3D houses and anyone who just has to have the biggest and baddest screen with an Apple logo on it you could ever imagine.

I would expect these displays to be part of the MWSF 2004 announcements. New restyled 17" to 23" 16X9 Cinema displays should be a sure thing but the 30" beast is still a question mark.

Apple Waves Good Bye to Motorola

And good riddance too! Apple has had a long relationship with Motorola, but this has often been a sour one that Apple has been forced to tolerate. After all, only Motorola made the 68k series of processors early Macs used. Talk about being a captive client! More recently Apple used both IBM G3 series processors and Motorola G4 series processors. There was never a shortage of G3 processors but we all know what problems Apple has had with Motorola regarding the G4. Nothing but failed delivery of product, poor development, poor production... you know the usual results of major mismanagement at any corporation.

Apple will most likely disentangle itself from the Motorola Tar Baby during 2004. Already the top PowerMac models use IBM G5 processors, and although still stuck with Motorola for the moment while G4 processors are still the mainstay for iMacs, PowerBooks and iBooks, expect Apple to move to PPC 970 G5 processors for the mid and low end during 2004 in iMacs and eventually PowerBooks. The new IBM 750 class processors (code named "Globo") now include an AltiVec register will replace Motorola G4 processors in iBooks. IBM's new "Globo" will probably be called a G4 because it is a 32 bit PPC with an AltiVec register (aka VMX). This new processor that will make its way into the iBook will be the last stand of 32 bit computing at Apple. When that happens, Apple will have finally gotten free of Moto's incredible mismanagement and technical development failures. Although this still means Apple will be dependent on one supplier, IBM, at least IBM delivers on promises.

Poor Man's iPod

There have been a few rumors of Apple producing a low end and more affordable 5 Gb iPod. Some rumors even hoped that it would sell for under US$100. I don't know about this one. Perhaps Apple does have something like this on tap, but I might want to reserve judgment. the hard drive is not the only component whose cost must be factored into the final price. Even if lower cost and smaller 1.8" hard drives are used, the rest of the iPod won't necessarily be any cheaper to produce. I will believe it when I see it. That being said... it would definitely be a nice surprise for the less-than-affluent amongst us.

Mac OS X Tablet Computer

Ye Gads! Won't this rumor ever die!? The Wintel based tablet PC has gone over like a solid lead balloon. All it really is is an oversized standard PDA. This makes it too big for a pocket. It is about the size of a laptop except it lacks a decent color screen, a keyboard, software or mouse. It does have a bigger price tag than a low end laptop.

This sounds like a poor idea to me. In fact, most potential buyers agree. All Tablet PC makers combined (with a combined market share somewhere around a claimed 97%) have barely managed to get 100,000 suckers to buy this dud in the past year. Compare this to Apple (with a 3% total market share) selling a paltry 133,000 PowerMacs in one quarter which was deemed to be a poor one. With a five to one sales ratio in Apple's favor, you have to wonder why the usual idiots in the tech media keep telling us Apple should join the lemmings and lose some money as well. Must be the same guys who kept telling everyone to buy dot-com stocks.

Nonetheless, Apple might just surprise us. The original iMac came out of the blue. So did the recent 20" flat screen model. Most "experts" were guessing that the original iMac was going to be another TiVo or WebTV. The iPod proved to be just another MP3 compatible music player... but with bells and whistles that the rest still can only envy and a current 50% market share. Apple proved that even when it produced a "conventional" product that superior quality and technical polish would win out. I think iPod sales figures speak for themselves. The Wintel-centic pundits are still trying to explain why cheap knock-offs based on proprietary non-RIAA approved technologies should be better.

I have my doubts about a Mac OS X tablet computer, but Apple just might spring another surprise on us. if Apple does do one, expect it to have capabilities that make the Tablet PC seem like an Etch-A-Sketch by comparison.

Mac OS X 10.4

Okay... so this one is obvious. Of course there will be further upgrades to Mac OS X. Just when they will appear is anyone guess. I am not willing to put any bets on when. I don't think anyone inside of Apple is either.

In Conclusion...

(*YAWN*) Oh... waking up now are we? Okay... the final word. Apple will spring some unexpected stuff on us, the G5 will get faster and faster and make its way into the iMac and eventually into the PowerBook. Time of arrival? Ummm... I think I will pass on that one. We will all know soon enough.

- Joe Carson

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